MANILA
If Vice President Jojo Binay goes on to win the presidency in 2016 despite the damning exposes of corruption against him, what would that say about the kind of electorate we have?
If the election were held today and intelligent voters were in the majority, it would stand to reason that Binay would lose. The corruption charges against him appear credible, and one would think that that’s enough for the voters to reject his bid.
As Binay himself has said, his critics have been crucifying him. They’ve thrown everything (including the kitchen sink, as the American saying goes) at him, and more dirt is still promised by the whistleblowers and anti-Binay politicians. The end of the tunnel for him seems to be still far ahead.
Former President Joseph Estrada has commiserated with Binay that his enemies did the same thing to him, they crucified him during his time. It’s true, they pilloried Erap (his nickname), hanged him, and left for dead. But Erap has a cat’s nine lives, he’s still very much around, with the Supreme Court taking its sweet time in deciding whether Erap, as an ex-convict, should be banned from elective politics for life. To confirm his lucky streak, he is today mayor of the city of Manila.
Binay’s life must be hellish lately. The list of accusations against him seems endless. If true, his wealth and holdings are mind-boggling. Even the unimpressionable Sen. Miriam Santiago is awed by “Hacienda Binay” (a vast estate of impressive buildings and gardens in Batangas province south of Manila) and all the other alleged trappings of newly-acquired riches. Nouveau-riche, as the old rich would sneer.
The vice president’s popularity rating has taken a dip from some 40 percent to 30 percent. The next round of surveys will tell us if the wounds inflicted on him are fatal, or at least permanent.
In any case, the beating he’s taken from the exposes has bruised him badly. And even if he comes out still standing after the mugging, the charges are believable and numerous enough to make the intelligent voter take not only a second look at Binay the candidate but also to seriously consider rejecting him as the putative next President of the republic.
This is so especially because Binay hasn’t come up with similarly credible answers to all the corruption charges detonated against him by his former allies in Makati City (where he was mayor for several years) and probed by senators who are obviously not fans of his. The charges have the ring of believability to them and, without any acceptable rebuttal by Binay in the near future, would be taken as true by the discerning among us.
Now, the question is whether the unanswered charges are enough to make the people say “No” to Binay as our next President. And whether his base of currently some 30 percent of the voters will turn their backs on him too. Or whether the next surveys will tell us whether that base of support has dwindled to an insignificant number that’s statistically too small for Binay to still have a chance at becoming President.
The other side of the question is, what if the voters ignore the credible charges of corruption against Binay and still select him to be our next President? And what if his base of 30 percent at present is unmoved by the charges and stays with him to the bitter (or better) end? What would that say about us Filipinos?
Binay has vowed not to appear at the hearings of the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee, where he’s been asked to answer the corruption charges against him. He would rather travel the length and breath of the country and plead his case directly to the people. He should bring with him convincing proof to counter the long list of charges leveled against him.
I have humbly suggested before that Binay assemble a group of savvy strategists to come up with a credible refutation of all accusations against him. He’s counting on his base of support to stick with him as he plays the class card, pitting the poor against the country’s rich whom he accuses of being allergic to him. It’s a dangerous ploy because it’s divisive. It may or may not work.
It could possibly work. Because a presidential candidate could win with only a plurality of the votes, Binay could very well become President with, say, only 30 percent of the votes, depending on how many candidates run. Indeed, in 1992 President Fidel Ramos won with less than 24 percent of the vote.
In countries where a simple majority of at least 50 percent plus one vote is required to win, a runoff election is held when no candidate wins a majority. That is not required in the Philippines (we’re too poor to be able to afford the luxury of a runoff election on top of the main election).
If indeed the majority (or a plurality) sticks with Binay and elects him President despite everything, would that damn us as immature, undiscerning, and unsophisticated politically? The coming survey results will give us a hint. The 2016 election will confirm what kind of voters we are.
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