I hate to discuss politics at a time when people all over the world, including Filipinos in America and in the homeland, are facing a gloomy year. But knowing how deep the country is immersed in politics, dirty or otherwise, we cannot help but believe that the direction of the Philippine economy will ultimately depend on how politics is played out and how politicians will behave in this crucial year and in the first half of next year.
With the elections set in May next year, politicians and even ordinary citizens will tend to overlook the grave problems that beset the country and the world, and set their usual short-sighted vision on that most important activity in the nation’s life – the presidential elections, which, although still 17 months away, seems to be just around the corner.
It is no surprise, therefore, that at the start of the year, various political camps are already discussing possible presidential tickets.
It was reported last week, for example, that a formidable ticket, with Bro. Mike Velarde of El Shaddai as presidential candidate and former President Joseph Estrada as his running mate, is being cooked up by a group led by Estrada’s former Trade Secretary Jose Pardo.
The Velarde-Estrada ticket seemed plausible enough, knowing that Velarde surely has ambitions to be the leader of a reform-oriented government and that Estrada, although wanting to run for president, would have difficulty overcoming constitutional obstacles to a second run at Malacanang. But the very next day, Pardo denied having discussed that idea with anybody, much less with a journalist, and even went to the extent of saying he is over with politics.
Estrada also denied his camp was toying with the idea of a Velarde-Estrada ticket, saying: “I highly respect Brother Mike Velarde but I have no intention of running, for vice presidency, even for a man of such stature as his.”
I believe him, because I know for a fact that he is eyeing the presidency, and will definitely run despite the constitutional question of whether he is barred from running again for the presidency. What else explains his romping around the country, waving to crowds from an open vehicle, kissing babies, and giving away lunch boxes?
Estrada is not hiding this fact anyway, although he insists that he would run only if the opposition fails to field a single candidate in May. But he leaves no secret the fact that he was eyeing Sen. Loren Legarda as his running mate, which I believe Legarda would gladly accept, knowing that a vice presidency would give her an edge in 2016.
Legarda is also being pitched as a possible candidate of business tycoon Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist People’s Coalition, together with Sen. Francis Escudero. Cojuangco seems inclined to choose the young Escudero as the standard bearer, with Legarda as running mate. My estimation is that if Estrada is allowed to run, which is very remote, Legarda would choose to bolt NPC and join Estrada’s Partido ng Masang Pilipino. After all, she has better chances with Estrada in the election and could be an instant president in case the elderly and ailing Estrada does not finish his term (again) for some reason.
If Cojuangco decides on Escudero, his favorite nephew, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, will have to join the race in Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Lakas-Kampi group, where he will have to contend with Vice President Noli de Castro (the only one who has a chance against an Estrada candidacy), Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando, and possibly Sen. Dick Gordon.
Fernando and Dick Gordon have started their not-so-quiet campaigns, with Fernando spreading posters outside Metro Manila, and Gordon making the rounds of the provinces through the Philippine National Red Cross, which he heads.
Teodoro is the least known of the Lakas-Kampi presidentiables, and unless his uncle Cojuangco supports him, he doesn’t stand a chance.
Personally, I believe that anybody who runs under the Arroyo coalition does not stand a chance, even if Arroyo diverts half of the Philippine budget to the campaign, unless there is another Garci in the making, in which case, pandemonium could break loose in the country.
But if the various opposition groups fail to unite behind a common candidate, or at least limit their bets to just two or three, the Arroyo camp can pull the rug from under them. The more candidates the opposition has, the better the ruling coalition’s chance of rigging the elections.
Only Estrada, because of his continued popularity despite his overthrow in 2001, stands a chance to win against an administration bet in a scenario where opposition groups field five or more candidates. In such an event, let us all pray his incarceration enlightened him and made him a changed man whose only objective is to repair his damaged reputation by doing what is right as a national leader.
Estrada said he would run if the opposition groups fail to field a common candidate, which is like saying he would definitely make a second run for the presidency, because the possibility that any of the known presidential wanna-be’s would back down is very remote.
The next presidential election is still eight years away, and for overly ambitious men and women, that’s too far away. As of this writing, the possible presidential candidates from the opposition rank are Sen. Manny Villar, Sen. Mar Roxas, Makati Mayor Jojo Binay, Sen. Ping Lacson, Legarda, Escudero, and, of course, Estrada.
If all of them decide to run anyway, and presuming Lakas and Kampi field only one candidate, that would make it an eight-cornered fight, almost like the 1992 elections, which produced a minority president (23%) in Fidel V. Ramos, and close to the 1998 elections, which Estrada still won by an overwhelming majority.
This year would spring surprises. There are indications that some groups may field non-traditional politicians to offer people an alternative. The best news I got this week was a report that Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno may be considering throwing his hat into the crowded political arena. Nothing’s a crowd for an intelligent and independent man like Puno. Although Puno has kept mum, the SC spokesperson said Puno might consider it if the people wanted him to run.
I also foresee another attempt by the religious sector to field its own candidate, which could either be Bro. Eddie Villanueva of the Jesus is Lord Movement, who ran in 2004, or El Shaddai’s Velarde.
But here’s something to ponder about: Arroyo making a deal with Estrada in a presidency-for-protection tradeoff. Arroyo will exhaust all efforts to postpone or cancel the 2010 election by pushing charter change (cha-cha) – and the accompanying shift to parliamentary system – this year. If that fails, she will see if her candidate stands a chance against the opposition bet or bets. If not, it is possible that she would forge a deal with Estrada to help the latter with a favorable ruling from the Supreme Court, which she expects to fully control by late this year, on the constitutional issue regarding Estrada’s eligibility. For what? A promise of protection from prosecution at least during the six-year term.
Impossible? Let me remind you that nothing is impossible in the dirty world of Philippine politics. For all we know, some people close to both Estrada and Arroyo could be brokering that deal right now.
One thing is sure, though. Billions of pesos, mostly coming from the government coffers, will be spent starting middle of this year for the presidential campaign, not counting the congressional and local polls. With this money going around, who needs a bailout?