Either way you look at the announcements of Philippine House Speaker Prospero Nograles and Rep. Luis Villafuerte that they are resigning their leadership of Lakas and Kampi, respectively, to hasten the merger of the two administration parties, it definitely does not bode well for the opposition in the 2010 presidential elections and in the battle for charter change (cha-cha).
Last Monday, Nograles, who is president of Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD), and Villafuerte, who is head of the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (Kampi), said they were resigning as heads of their parties to fasttrack the merger of the two political forces and prepare for the 2010 presidential elections.
If this were indeed the reason for the sudden resignations, the opposition better get their act together because a single administration candidate in the May presidential polls against at least five opposition candidates could very well mean the allies of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo could continue holding on to the reins of power for at least another six years.
A sole Lakas-Kampi candidate — which could be Vice President Noli de Castro, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro or a surprise, dark horse candidate – wouldn’t need a clear majority or even a convincing percentage of the votes if pitted against an array of opposition bets. Even if Senators Manny Villar, Chiz Escudero, Loren Legarda and Ping Lacson are scoring big in nationwide surveys, that would mean nothing if all of them decide to run and the administration fields a single candidate.
Had Lacson and the late Fernando Poe Jr. ran under one slate, with the other sliding to the vice presidency, Arroyo could not have won because the lead would have been insurmountable even with a “Garci” abra-kadabra. Former President Fidel V. Ramos, who was running in an electoral contest for the first time and backed by an entirely new party, won with only 23% of the votes in 1992 over such political heavyweights as the late Speaker Ramon V. Mitra, Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago, businessman Danding Cojuangco, former First Lady Imelda Marcos, former Sen. Jovito Salonga and former Vice President Salvador H. Laurel, because he had at least six opponents.
If unity is impossible, the opposition groups should at least limit their presidential candidates to two, with the two sliding to vice presidency to avoid a repeat of the 1992 and 2004 polls where two otherwise losing candidates won. They should heed the warning of former President Joseph Estrada that unless they fielded a single candidate, he himself would run.
Remember that Estrada won a majority of the votes and earned the biggest margin ever in a Philippine presidential elections despite the fact that political bigwigs were running then, such as former Speaker Jose de Venecia, Sen. Raul Roco, former Defense Secretary Renato de Villa, Mayor Alfredo Lim, Cebu Gov. Lito Osmena and Senators Juan Ponce Enrile and Santiago. Barring a Supreme Court decision prohibiting his candidacy, Estrada could be the opposition’s best bet in a situation where at least four opposition candidates are running against a lone administration bet.
But all these depend on the fate of the cha-cha. Which brings us back to last Monday’s announcements by Nograles and Villafuerte.
Both Nograles and Villafuerte emphasized that their moves should reassure the public that next year’s polls would be held as scheduled despite the cha-cha initiative. “That also means that we are not extending our terms of office,” Nograles said.
Villafuerte said Lakas and Kampi are on “electoral preparations mode” and that should erase doubts that next year’s elections would be canceled and Cha-cha would shift the nation to the parliamentary system. The two party leaders said such preparations and their Cha-cha campaign are “unrelated” and that efforts to amend the Constitution could be separately pursued.
Why do I find it hard to believe that these two administration leaders are sincere in their pronouncements? One reason, perhaps, is that the Arroyo administration and its allies have a track record of saying one thing and meaning the opposite. Another reason is that neither Nograles nor Villafuerte is a model for honesty and credibility.
It is simply unbelievable that these two bitter political protagonists would suddenly decide to call a press conference together and announce their voluntary departure from their party pedestals just to “reassure” the people that there will be elections in 2010, but on the same breath stress that cha-cha initiatives would continue in the House.
If they were really honest about their intentions for the holding of the 2010 presidential elections, why didn’t they just announce that they have decided to abandon their cha-cha initiatives, that their parties would rather concentrate on the May polls, and that they would just resume their efforts after the May elections?
What’s so urgent about their desire to amend the constitution that it cannot wait until after a new president and a new Congress have been elected?
My gut feeling is that Nograles and Villafuerte called the press conference and made their announcements at the behest of their master in Malacanang. Remember that Nograles was given a hint by Rep. Mikey Arroyo that he could be replaced when the younger Arroyo offered the job back to De Venecia in exchange for his support of the administration’s cha-cha through con-ass initiative. As for Villafuerte, he obviously knows he is a virtual nobody without Arroyo’s support.
Arroyo is a master of deceit. She could have easily asked Nograles and Villafuerte to act the deception for her. They are, after all, Arroyo’s premier lapdogs. Let them lull the people and the opposition into believing the cha-cha is dead and that they better focus on the presidential elections at hand. And while they aren’t looking, the House passes the con-ass resolution, the Supreme Court gives it the go-signal, and the administration-dominated constituent assembly revises the constitution to either allow Arroyo to run for another term or as prime minister in a parliamentary form of government.
Arroyo’s allies had done it before. They can do it again.
