Yes, President Benigno Aquino III wants his hand-picked senatorial bets to sweep the May 13 election and shut out the opposition with 12 wins and no losses. (PNoy is the president’s political nickname; Noynoy is his family nickname.)
Will his wish come true? Not likely.
Aquino has been doing the rounds of campaigning around the country and using TV and radio to bat for his candidates, earning brickbats from some people for supposedly “neglecting” his presidential duties in favor of politicking. He wants doggedly to get a clear majority in the senate, the better to push his reform agenda.
But it’s going to be a hard push. He has good candidates on the senatorial slate, but the opposition too has some popular, if not exactly good, bets. The surveys currently give the president’s slate a winning margin of nine likely winners to the opposition’s three. Twelve senatorial seats are being contested (the full Senate consists of 24 members, elected in batches of 12).
As you’re reading this, the campaign will be on the homestretch (or maybe over, if you’re late in picking up this paper), and in a couple of weeks we shall know the winners. The campaign has been spirited as usual, but the names and faces of the candidates are mostly familiar mug shots, the usual suspects, as the quip goes.
This is what’s sad about Philippine politics — elections and government are dominated by the same people, the same families and the same cliques. While public service and governance need new blood, new aspirants to positions are unable to squeeze themselves into the fray, mainly for lack of money to finance their campaigns and because of the stranglehold by traditional politicians of the system. New hopefuls don’t even get to the starting gate because of the prohibitive cost of running for office and the vise-like grip of political warlords on the electoral process.
In the May 13 elections, a small number of new faces are vying to be senators. But their chances of winning are between zero and nil. Yes, that’s how tough it is to get a foot into the door of Philippine politics. The dominance of traditional politicians is so powerful that no newcomers are welcome or tolerated.
The last Observer column gave you the senatorial candidates doing well in the surveys. The same people remain in basically the same survey positions at this writing. But surveys are just indicators of people’s preferences taken as a snap shot. Surveys, even though they are more and more scientific and reliable, have been known to err in past elections. Candidates who hadn’t been doing well in the surveys eventually came out as winners.
So, if the elections were held today, the following senatorial bets will make it to the winners’ circle: Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Alan Cayetano, Nancy Binay, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, Koko Pimentel, Sonny Trillanes, Bam Aquino, JV Ejercito, Sonny Angara, and Gringo Honasan.
Will the Observer vote for these people?
First of all, I don’t vote for the full slate of candidates. I usually don’t vote for the sure winners because they don’t need my vote anymore (this category includes Legara, Escudero and Cayetano who will be sure winners). And, because I usually like only a few candidates.
So, who will I vote for? While I’m not telling people who to vote for, I will tell who I will vote for and why. As I said, I will not vote for the sure winners anymore. I will vote for: Ramon Magsaysay Jr., not only because he’s the son of a pro-poor former president, but also because he’s squeaky-clean, without any scandal attached to his name. Jamby Madrigal who, even though she comes from one of the wealthiest families in the country, is pro-poor. Both Magsaysay and Madrigal are former senators.
And, if I’m still in the mood on Election Day, I will vote for Teddy Casino, a former street activist who is currently a member of the House of Representatives as a party-list congressman (meaning he doesn’t represent a geographical region but a sectoral constituency). Casino is not likely to win, but he will be my protest vote this time around, even though he, like most socio-ideological activists, is too self-righteous.
I will conclude this column by listing the senatorial candidates whom I purposely will not vote for: Jack Enrile, son of senate president and former trusted henchman of dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Juan Ponce Enrile (for this reason alone, no one should vote for Jack). Ernesto Maceda, a long-time politician who in his early days was called by then-Manila Mayor Arsenio Lacson as “so young and yet so corrupt.”
Mitos Magsaysay, a Magsaysay clan in-law who was very close to then-President Gloria Arroyo. Gringo Honasan, a reelectionist senator who was a perennial coup plotter (against then-President Cory Aquino, mother of the current president) and who hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in the senate.
Nancy Binay, whose only admitted qualification for running is that she’s the daughter of the currently popular Vice President Jojo Binay. And Migz Zubiri, a senatorial usurper who managed to sit in the senate for four years by virtue of rigged elections in 2007 and who gave up his seat only when it was clear he was going to be declared a non-winner by an electoral tribunal and pretended he was relinquishing the post as a matter of principle.
Besides Casino as a dark horse, others may yet squeak into the winning side, like former senator Dick Gordon (another know-it-all).
So there, the Observer’s limited choices, for whatever the list is worth.
PNoy has been spending a lot of time on the stump batting for his candidates. He has been telling people he needs their vote for his chosen candidates and, conversely, saying their opponents will not be helpful to his agenda of cleansing politics and government of bad elements and ushering in a new age of clean politics.
Mr. Aquino is very popular and has been enjoying high marks in public polls. If he pleads enough with the people, maybe he’ll get his wish. But the leaders of the opposition — former President Joseph Estrada, Enrile, and Binay — also have formidable followings despite their checkered political pasts.
It is a tug-of-war between two powerful forces — the Aquino force and that of the so-called “Three Kings” — and the eventual winner will be an even stronger force to be reckoned with in Philippine politics in the presidential elections of 2016 (when Jojo Binay will be a candidate) and many years to come.
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