I’m pretty sure Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. has been having some sleepless nights since he assumed office in July. He has the unenviable position of having to explain and clarify most of President Duterte’s remarks involving foreign policy, specifically those pertaining to the Philippines’ longtime ally United States. And they’re not few.
Yasay had to rush to Washington D.C. last week to try to soothe the hurt feelings and the deep concerns that Duterte has inflicted on the world’s most powerful country and the Philippines’ most dependable ally for decades.
Specifically, Yasay sought a meeting with US State Secretary John Kerry in an apparent attempt to mend fences with Washington after Duterte called for US troop withdrawal in Mindanao. Yasay said he would assure Kerry that there is no change in the country’s foreign policy. Malacanang itself has stated that the President has not issued an official statement on the matter.
Early last week, Duterte said he wanted US forces out of Mindanao and blamed America for the restiveness of Muslim militants in the region. It was the first time he publicly opposed the presence of American troops in the country although he had stated many times, in various ways, that he has no love for Americans.
Duterte has had an uneasy relationship with the US since assuming the presidency in June and has been openly critical of American security policies. As a candidate, he declared he would chart a foreign policy that would not depend on America.
The President’s uneasy ties with the US gained its crescendo when before leaving for the Asean summit in Laos, he used expletives as he blasted US President Barack Obama when asked by a reporter how he would respond if Obama raised the issue of human rights. While Duterte expressed regrets for the remarks, for which he blamed media’s quoting him out of context, the President went on to verbally attack American atrocities during the US pacification campaign in Mindanao a century ago in his speech before the Asean leaders.
Upon his return, the unrepentant Duterte said again that he did not like the Americans and said the 100 or so American Special Forces troops in Mindanao should leave the country.
This was later followed by another remark that the Philippines is considering buying weapons from Russia and China and that the Philippines would not participate in joint patrols with the US in the South China Sea. Again, Yasay and Duterte’s defenders in Malacanang had to clarify the statements.
Duterte’s obvious ideological prejudices against the United States, apparently a hangover from his Kabataang Makabayan days with Communist Party of the Philippines founder Jose Maria Sison, are exacerbated by his constant pronouncements that he was ready to engage in bilateral talks with China despite the country’s recent legal victory in its territorial dispute with China in the UN Permanent Court on Arbitration.
Duterte said he was expecting plenty of help from China, an apparent follow-up to his musing after he was proclaimed the winner of the May 10 presidential elections that he would sit down with China if it would help fund the Philippines’ railway project.
The President may be repeating the same mistake that Gloria Macapagal Arroyo made when she struck a deal for the joint exploration of the South China Sea apparently in exchange for the controversial NBN-ZTE broadband deal that was eventually dropped amid corruption allegations. This emboldened China to be more aggressive in the South China Sea.
Duterte is obviously looking at China in terms of how the economic giant can help the country economically, particularly in terms of trade and infrastructure development. But former Economic Planning Secretary and NEDA Director General Cielito F. Habito, who served during the time of President Fidel V. Ramos, debunked myths that an economic partnership with China is more beneficial to the Philippines than with the US.
Habito said the US is more important to the Philippines as an export market, accounting for 15 percent of our total exports in value terms, against China’s 10.9 percent. As source of imports, the reverse is true, with official figures showing less of the country’s imports (10.8 percent) coming from the United States than from China (16.2 percent).
“Offhand, it appears that proportionately more workers benefit from our exports to the United States than to China, with labor-intensive manufactures more prominent in our top five exports to the former,” Habito said.
He added that as source of foreign direct investments, the US is far more important to the Philippines than China, accounting for 13 percent of total net FDI inflows in 2015, against China’s negligible 0.01 percent (less than $1 million).
As for remittances, Habito said, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas data report that nearly half (43 percent) comes from the United States, and less than 1 percent from China. “It would seem from all this that on purely economic terms, we stand to lose more from antagonizing the Americans than the Chinese,” he said.
From an economic standpoint, however, it would be wise for Duterte to keep the country’s ties with both countries on even keel. The United States remains the world’s biggest economic power with China coming closely at second.
Duterte, however, has to be careful in issuing statements or making reckless remarks on foreign policy, especially on matters that would alter the balance of power in Asia. By sending wrong signals regarding its relationships with either US or China, Duterte is playing into the hands of China, which is obviously hoping to divide the Asean countries as it moves to grab military superiority in the region.
Coming as it does during America’s pivot to Asia, Duterte’s tirades against the United States and the softening of the country’s stand against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea could have a critical impact on the balance of power in the region.
The Philippines is at the forefront of the battle against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and holds an ace in having won a very important legal battle on the sea dispute. As in the game of poker, it would be unwise for the country to fold when it holds an ace in its hand.
As Duterte has repeatedly said, he is now the president of the Philippines and not just the mayor of Davao City. As such, he represents the voice, the hope and aspirations of the Filipino people. He can no longer speak based just on his own ideological prejudices, but must reflect the interest of the people. Does he believe that the 16 million people who voted for him resoundingly want the country to favor China over the United States? How about the other 90 million or so Filipinos, who also look to him now as their leader?