Something’s sneaky about recent developments in the Philippines – the visits of two senior US officials, the radical proposal of Malacanang’s top security adviser for a revolutionary government, the sudden departure to the US of Interior Secretary Ronnie Puno and the subsequent naming of retired PNP chief Gen. Hermogenes Ebdane Jr. as OIC of Puno’s department, the bomb explosions and alleged bombing attempts in Metro Manila, the bombing attacks in Mindanao, and the sudden invitation from the White House for Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to visit Washington at the end of this month.
On June 1, US Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates visited Manila “to reaffirm US commitment to the country’s fight against terrorism.” In his talks with his Philippine counterpart, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Gates said the two countries’ relationship “should evolve into a broader, more strategic one as the Philippines is taking on a larger security role on the world stage in combating international terrorism.”
In addition, Gates said Washington was expecting the 2010 presidential elections to push through.
On June 21, National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales proposed that Arroyo lead a military-backed revolutionary transition government that would institute electoral reforms and amend the constitution before the May 2010 elections.
A few days later, Interior Secretary Ronnie Puno left for the US to attend a daughter’s wedding, but instead of letting his deputies run the Department of Interior and Local Government, Malacanang named Public Works Secretary Ebdane, former National Police chief, as OIC of the DILG, a suspicious and unprecedented move. Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita said Puno was on health leave and had gone to the US for a medical check-up, a claim Puno denied the next day, saying that he was in good health and he was in the US only for his daughter’s wedding.
Towards the end of the month, a bomb was thrown at the Office of the Ombudsman in Quezon City. Two days later, a bomb was found at the Department of Agriculture and at a condominium building where the Arroyos owned a penthouse unit, both in Quezon City.
During the same week, the retired generals – and they are many — in Arroyos’ Cabinet were reported to have met in Malacanang.
These developments were interpreted by opposition leaders and political pundits as probable prelude to the declaration of martial law, a rumor that has surfaced, disappeared and resurfaced many times during Arroyo’s tumultuous tenure.
On the Fourth of July, US Ambassador Kristie Kenney, in an apparent reaction to talks about a no-election scenario in 2010, said a postponement of the general elections next year would be a cause of concern in Washington, adding: “We believe elections are a good way of renewing democracy.”
Fears of martial law were further inflamed by four bombing attacks in Mindanao that killed eight people and injured 85 others, which were immediately blamed on the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. The MILF disowned responsibility for the attacks.
Amid the bombings and renewed fears of martial law, CIA chief Leon Panetta arrived for talks with Arroyo. They held a 30-minute closed-door meeting where, according to Malacanang, the two discussed issues on regional security and international terrorism.
And the surprise invitation came on the day Panetta left – Arroyo had been invited for talks with US President Barack Obama in the White House, a meeting Arroyo had been moving heaven and earth for almost two years to achieve.
The twists and turns of recent events threw many into confusion. If Arroyo were planning to declare martial law, why was she being invited to the White House?
I believe, as many political observers believe, that these events are all intertwined. I even believe that the Honduran coup is an important link to the intertwined events. It is what the ultimate objective or result is where analysts would vary.
I think observers of Philippine politics agree that Arroyo is bent on remaining in power beyond her constitutionally mandated term. Why else would her allies continue to pursue charter change (cha-cha) despite all the legal obstacles and despite its unpopularity with the people?
Arroyo would be willing to run around the laws of the land, with the connivance of the Supreme Court if need be, but not everybody would agree that Arroyo would resort to, or has the capability, to impose martial rule. While she has been cunning enough to put loyalist generals in key military posts, this does not insure loyalty from other senior and junior officers who remain loyal to the people.
Nonetheless, recent events tend to point to the possibility of a desperate Arroyo pressuring the Supreme Court, where her appointees hold the majority, to allow Congress to convene itself into a constituent assembly without the consent of the Senate, or pressuring the Commission on Elections to hold a plebiscite on proposed amendments by the House-led constituent assembly, just as Honduran President Manuel Zalaya did before he was unceremoniously ousted in a military coup.
Whether the Mindanao and Metro Manila bombings were instigated by the military, the CIA, or by the MILF is uncertain up to this time, but one thing is definite. Arroyo’s apparent persistence on holding on to power whether thru cha-cha or martial rule is causing concern in Washington that this could lead to a military coup just as it happened in Honduras and jeopardize America’s interests in the Philippines and in the Southeast Asian region.
The concern was serious enough that Washington had instructed three key officials – Defense Secretary Robert Gates, CIA chief Luis Panetta and Ambassador Kristie Kenney – to remind Arroyo that Washington wants a smooth transition of power in 2010. And to make the message even clearer, Obama has now sent an “invitation,” a diplomatic word for “summon,” to Washington to discuss precisely mutual interests, which, in plain language, means America’s continued use of the Philippines as a base of its military operations in the region through the extension of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and the Philippines’ continued enjoyment of military assistance and economic aid.
Some say Washington failed to anticipate the coup in Honduras. On the other hand, it may also be the handiwork of the CIA to avert the continued slide of Honduras into the circle of leftist leaders like Cuba’s Fidel and Raul Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
In any case, Arroyo wouldn’t want that to happen to her. And she knows she has to be in Washington to take “hints” from Obama on how to proceed.