Have you seen a naughty cat playfully harass a hapless mouse? The cat tosses and shoves the poor mouse around, like a rag doll, until the mouse is so tired it can’t dodge the predator cat anymore.
That is what China is doing to the Philippines. That is what the new superpower is doing with tiny Philippines over a 150-square-kilometer grouping of reefs in the waters west of the Philippines. The two countries are claiming ownership of the reefs, internationally called the Scarborough Shoal.
The Philippines calls the reefs Panatag or Bajo de Masinloc, because they are off the shores of Masinloc town in Zambales province on the Philippine island of Luzon. China calls the place, or more correctly the site (because there’s really no “there” there, in terms of land), Huangyan Island.
Over the past two months, China and the Philippines have been playing cat and mouse around the shoal. The Philippines, the poor country that it is, had sent a couple of ships to the area to keep watch. China has deployed up to 30 vessels. How’s that for a show of force?
With that kind of ratio, what chance of success would two vessels have against 30? It would be a no-contest in case a shooting war broke out. (Indeed, at press
time, a Chinese vessel had reportedly rammed a Filipino fishing boat, killing one of our countrymen and injuring others.)
Why are the two countries fighting over a seemingly insignificant group of reefs in the waters the Philippines calls West Philippine Sea while China’s name for it is South China Sea?
The area has been the fishing ground of both Filipino and Chinese fishermen for decades, most likely centuries. Ironically, the fishermen from both countries have been fishing there in perfect harmony, even exchanging banter to while away the ennui of being out in the open seas. And even sharing each other’s food and miscellaneous supplies.
But the reefs also reportedly have potential mineral reserves, including oil and natural gas that would be worth billions in any currency. And so there you are, what further motivation would anyone need to want to claim an area that might be a source of a lot of revenues?
Against this backdrop of amity and cooperation among fishermen over so many years comes the current dispute. What, China hasn’t got more important matters to occupy itself with?
Scarborough, or Panatag or Huangyan, is located within the internationally accepted 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. China is nowhere close. But, because the body of water there is called the South China Sea, China just assumed the reefs belong to it. So, it won’t allow any further argument over ownership, it belongs to China and that is that.
To settle the dispute, the Philippines has proposed that the issue be brought up for international mediation. But China wouldn’t hear any of that, it just wants the two countries to settle the issue bilaterally, meaning just China and the Philippines. This way, China can easily bully the much-smaller Philippines and claim its prize.
China is a major trading partner of the Philippines. Philippine products have a big market in China. Indeed, China has gone to the extent of turning the screws on the Philippines and has been making it harder for Philippine products, like bananas, to enter the Chinese market.
Why would China take so much trouble defending its claim over Scarborough? The potential of mineral finds and earnings from their exploitation is a factor.
But another important consideration is China’s superpower status. A poor and puny nation like the Philippines has no right to challenge an increasingly rich country — indeed, the next economic superpower, if not already so — over such an international issue. That is China’s current attitude. It cannot lose face by giving in to an insignificant country like the Philippines.
Losing face is a dreaded consequence, whether personally or nationally, among Asian nations. This is especially true for China. And, its status as a superpower wouldn’t allow it to be seen as a pushover. That is why China is expending so much time, effort and resources over a seemingly minor issue.
The standoff over Scarborough is likely to continue for an indefinite period. When China loses its patience and becomes exasperated with an unworthy protagonist that is the Philippines, it may take more drastic action. It can make the Philippines suffer in many ways.
Philippine authorities are fully aware of this possible consequence. And that is why they are treading lightly and gingerly as they pursue the Philippines’ claim over Scarborough. Will diplomacy win out or will the dispute turn into a nastier conflict?
In our allegory of the cat and the mouse, the cat toys with the mouse, playful at first just to get its kicks. But, oftentimes, the cat’s game turns rough and deadly. The cat tires out the mouse by kicking it and bites it and throws it around. In the end, the mouse often ends up dead.
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