In the last few days, we have witnessed a seeming turnaround in the Philippine government’s posture towards China’s claims in the South China. After a frustrating policy of acquiescence and appeasement towards China’s aggression in the disputed waters we call West Philippine Sea, President Duterte and key government officials are finally talking sense and defending the country’s territorial integrity.
The President started the promising trend when he told China in no uncertain terms to lay off Pag-asa Island following reports from the military’s Western Command that hundreds of Chinese vessels, described as a flotilla of Chinese militia, are swarming the island, a village of Palawan’s Kalayaan town where hundreds of Filipinos live and where the military maintains a small base.
“I will not plead or beg, but I am just telling you to lay off the Pag-asa because I have soldiers there. If you touch it, that’s a different story. I will tell the soldiers ‘prepare for suicide mission’,” Duterte said in a speech.
The comment surprised many observers, coming from a leader who has done everything to please the country’s giant neighbor and who has pursued a policy of appeasement with China from the early days of the presidential campaign.
Duterte had opted to shelve a United Nations ruling on his very first month in office which ruled that the Philippines has exclusive rights over the area around Scarborough Shoal, which is 124 miles west of Zambales, well within the 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Arbitral Tribunal also said China had no legal basis to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within its claimed “nine-dash line.”
The President’s “lay off Pag-asa” remark triggered a series of unfamiliar, but welcome statements from both Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. and Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo.
“The stand is that it is ours. And they took it. World’s highest court ruled that. Period,” Locsin tweeted. “Now the question is how to take it back. I personally have no fear of war. One attack on a public vessel triggers World War 3 with the USofA which is impervious to attack from Asia,” he added. Locsin also said that the US was and would remain the “only military ally” of the Philippines.
Just this Tuesday, Locsin insisted that the vessels swarming Pag-asa Island were Chinese poachers and militia, definitely not fishermen as China continues to claim.
And then came a series of warnings from Panelo, who said Philippine sovereignty is “non-negotiable” and that China should immediately respond to a protest that both he and Locsin said had been filed but would not be made public. Panelo then said in another stinging statement that China should respect the 2016 UN tribunal ruling. And more importantly, Panelo stressed that the Philippines owns the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
Panelo was not done. He later said China should stop harassing Filipino fishermen in waters within Philippine territory and warned that such actions could sour “currently friendly relations” between the two countries. He basically told the Chinese to stop disrupting peace in the South China Sea.
Reacting to reports on Tuesday that Chinese vessels are extracting giant clams in the Scarborough Shola (Panatag Shoal), Panelo such action violates the country’s sovereignty. He further said that the President had “effectively” invoked the UN tribunal ruling when he told China to lay off Pag-asa Island. He also hinted that Duterte may even bring up the UN ruling during his coming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jin-ping.
The “salvo” of strong remarks vis-à-vis China was welcomed by many Filipinos, but questions remain as to what set off the sudden U-turn in the South China Sea issue.
The sudden strong reaction came after the reports on the swarming Chinese flotilla, and reached its crescendo when Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang maintained that the disputed Spratly Islands are within its territory as supported by “sufficient historical and legal basis.”
The change in the Philippines’ stand also came about a month after a meeting between Locsin and US State Secretary Mike Pompeo in Manila where the top American diplomat reassured the Philippine government that the US would come to the defense of the country if it came under attack in the South China Sea under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
Was it just the reassurance of US defense in case of military attack, or did something else occurred during the meeting with Locsin that prompted the new tack on the South China Sea issue?
Two other events that could have influenced the new foreign policy direction are Duterte’s coming visit to China and next month’s midterm elections.
Where before the Duterte administration would issue appeasing and reassuring statements before the visit, Duterte and his officials have now instead issued strong words against China possibly to give the President leverage in his talks with President Xi. Perhaps, the President has finally realized that beyond pledges and promises to support his ambitious “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program, Chinese money has yet to come.
The administration may also be worried that the continuous distrust of Filipinos in China and its continued “very friendly” ties with the giant neighbor could result in defeat for its candidates. Remember that in surveys after surveys, Filipinos have maintained deep trust for the United States and Japan while stating strong distrust for the Chinese.
Whatever the reason for the sudden change in foreign policy direction, we can only hope the Duterte administration’s commitment to defend Philippine sovereignty will keep its current path and not make another U-turn until the end of its term.
(valabelgas@aol.com)