One of their fathers could have been president if martial law had not cancelled the 1973 presidential elections. And now 37 years later, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, son of the late Sen. Gerardo “Gerry” Roxas, and Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, son of the late Sen. Benigno Aquino III, are in the forefront of the race for presidential nomination of the Liberal Party for the 2010 presidential elections.
The older Roxas, himself the son of a former president – President Manuel Roxas — was president of the Liberal Party and was caught in a dispute for the presidential nomination of the party with Ninoy Aquino, who was at the time the rising star of the opposition party and was known as the “Wonder Boy” of Philippine politics.
For years before that, the Nacionalista Party controlled Philippine politics, particularly the Philippine Senate. In 1967, the Nacionalista Party, riding on the popularity of President Ferdinand Marcos, trounced the Liberal senatorial bets, with only Ninoy Aquino surviving the onslaught. Aquino was only 34 then, the youngest to be elected senator. Then in 1969, coinciding with the reelection of President Ferdinand Marcos over Sen. Sergio Osmena Jr., the Nacionalista Senate bets again nearly swept the Liberals, 7-1, with only Roxas surviving.
But in 1971, after the Plaza Miranda bombing that injured all LP senatorial candidates except Aquino, who was not at the political rally at the time, the Liberals, this time riding on the increasing unpopularity of Marcos, turned the table and won five senatorial seats against the Nacionalista’s three, with reelectionist Jovito Salonga, who nearly died during the bombing, topping the elections.
Marcos was prohibited by the 1935 Constitution to run for a third term, and the Liberals were almost certain of winning the presidency in the 1973 elections. At that time, Roxas and Aquino were frontrunners for the LP nomination. But neither of them was to become president as Marcos declared martial law on Sept. 21, 1972.
Could Roxas have given way to Aquino then, as his son has now done to his party mate’s son?
Probably not. Roxas had been an outstanding senator for 11 years by then, and was president of the party. But Aquino was the rising star, acknowledged even by Marcos and his allies as the threat to their domination. During that time, national conventions were held to determine the party’s candidate for the presidency, and there were only two political parties – the NP and the LP. Whoever was chosen by the Liberals could have almost certainly won in the 1973 elections because Marcos and the NPs have become very unpopular.
Nobody would ever know what could have happened in the 1973 LP convention. But Ninoy Aquino’s star was on the rise and he was considered – even by the Marcos camp – the most formidable opponent for the ruling Nacionalista Party.
History is now repeating itself. Mar, like his father, is the LP president and was a cinch to become the party’s standard bearer. Suddenly, following the death of his mother, President Corazon Aquino, and the 26th anniversary of the assassination of his father Ninoy, Noynoy was thrust into the presidential picture with several party leaders backing him for the presidency.
Like his father before him, Mar Roxas was being challenged by a suddenly popular Noynoy Aquino. Mar was expected to stand his ground, having been the acknowledged LP standard bearer for nearly two years now. But every one was surprised, nay shocked, when he suddenly announced that he was giving way to Noynoy, who, like a bolt of lightning, came from nowhere to jolt the political landscape.
Some speculated that Mar could have realized that he was trailing in the ratings anyway, and giving up in favor of Noynoy could give him a graceful exit from a futile fight, make him an outstanding candidate in 2016, and, at the same time, strengthen the party. A few, including this writer, could not erase the possibility that it was all a scripted scenario where Noynoy would later decide he was not ready for the presidency and that Mar would do a better job as president. And that he would be satisfied with helping Mar by becoming his vice presidential candidate.
But apparently, Mar Roxas is a lot smarter than many thought. He was a gentleman and he knew that forcing his candidacy at this time could be disastrous to his career not only in the face of his poor ratings but also in the face of the snowballing movement to draft the Aquino scion for the presidency. By graciously and selflessly giving way to Aquino, he not only evaded being rolled over by the Aquino glacier, but he actually boosted his stock for either a vice presidential run or a senatorial reelection, and ultimately a presidential run in 2016.
With the entry of Aquino in the race, the presidential landscape has suddenly taken an entirely different color. Aquino is being supported by the same forces that led the two People Power uprising on EDSA that toppled two errant presidents. Suddenly, the top ratings of the Nacionalista Party’s Sen. Manny Villar, and the Nationalist People’s Coalition’s Sen. Francis Escudero were inconsequential. Suddenly, it no longer mattered that the ruling coalition could pick the popular Vice President Noli de Castro as its standard bearer.
The move to draft an Aquino for the presidency couldn’t have been done at a better time. The outpouring of love for his mother, President Cory Aquino, was at its peak when columnist Conrad de Quiroz first floated the idea and immediately caught on during the 26th anniversary of the assassination of his famous father, Sen. Ninoy Aquino. The Noynoy for President movement opened an opportunity for the forces of EDSA to unite again for a cause that they feel is as lofty as the 1986 and 2001 people’s revolts.
It didn’t matter that Noynoy may not be ready for the presidency. After all, it didn’t matter in 1986 that Cory was not ready for the presidency. Although a longtime congressman and a senator and a member of a deeply rooted political dynasty, Noynoy was never considered a traditional politician. The objective is to reform what is perceived as a rotten and corrupt political system, and Noynoy, just by his family name and blood lineage, was chosen as the symbol for this revived reformist movement. Never mind that his mother’s presidency was not as effective as it was hoped, never mind that the threat of the reviled ghosts of Kamag-anak Inc. might haunt the country’s body politic again.
The present political order must be disposed of, and many in the reformist movement believe only an Aquino can succeed to oust that rotten political order.
Nothing stands in the way of a Noynoy presidency now, except former President Joseph Estrada, the same leader who was ousted by the same EDSA forces in 2001 only to be replaced by an even more rotten president. Estrada is backed by the masses, who felt ignored in the aftermath of the 1986 revolt, who felt betrayed by the second EDSA revolt in 2001, and who vented their ire in EDSA Tres.
Estrada can still rally this group, which comprises perhaps 80 percent of the Philippine population, to his side as evidenced by the blind affection they have shown during his numerous trips to the remote villages and forgotten neighborhoods nationwide.
Unless the Supreme Court bans an Estrada run, the May elections will become a class battle between the middle classes and the masses. The upper classes that Villar, Escudero and the Arroyo clique represent will be left watching from the sidelines. Bro. Eddie Villanueva and his Bangon Pilipinas Party, also a reformist group, will eventually have to decide to join Noynoy’s group or be left in the wayside.
The leftist groups will again be left confused as they were in the 1986 EDSA Revolution. Will they join the reformist groups and leave behind the masses they were supposed to represent? Or will they join Estrada’s group and be stung by his past?
Former President Fidel V. Ramos and Speaker Jose de Venecia may be tempted to join the fray after announcing that Lakas-CMD was bolting from the short-lived Lakas-Kampi-CMD merger. Although they said Lakas would consider coalescing with another group, it is not a remote possibility that Ramos may also be eyeing a second run at the presidency after realizing that Estrada’s position that the 1987 Constitution reelection ban was only for sitting presidents holds water.
But Ramos, despite his respectable performance as president from 1992 to 1998, does not have a strong constituency like Aquino and Estrada.
The presidential derby has become exciting again. There may be more realignment of forces until the November deadline of filing for candidacy. Villar’s NP, Danding Cojuangco’s NPC and Arroyo’s Kampi may be drawn into a reluctant coalition to survive Noynoy’s surge and Estrada’s formidable strength, in which case it would be a three-cornered fight – a classic battle among the reformists and the middle classes on one hand, represented by Noynoy Aquino; the masses on the other, represented by Estrada; and the corrupt upper classes, represented by Arroyo’s chosen candidate, possibly Villar.
I wouldn’t be surprised either if the groups of Villar, Cojuangco and Arroyo suddenly agree to an unholy alliance with Estrada, help him survive the Supreme Court gauntlet, help finance his campaign, and get protection in return for their various business and financial interests. Indeed, an unholy and devilish alliance with the masses at the losing side of the bargain.
Philippine politics never fails to amuse me.