IT’S WORSE THAN YOU THINK
Part II
Since the publication of part I, THE CLIMATE CRISIS, in the last month’s BALITA, more intense weather events have been experienced unseen in the recent past. Extreme and historical are the buzzwords—colder, more typhoons/hurricanes in the latter part of the year. On a record-setting scale, typhoon Odette’s toll had reached 407 dead, 597,000 houses damaged or destroyed, and 24.5 B pesos in damages.
There were massive winter storms from Colorado to Michigan or severe cold in the prairies unseen in 50 years. In December, high winds, severe drought, and high temperature burned 1000 houses and damaged over 100 more in Louisville, Colorado. Then a blanket of snow covered the whole area while the fires were still smouldering—a surreal “coup d’ grace,” reminding us to take climate change seriously. The U.S. toll in 2021 is 688 dead and 145 B in damages.
On August 9, 2021, the IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ) delivered its latest report on the status of global climate. It is the most evident assessment yet of the dire situation of our rapidly changing climate- and how this will impact the future of all life, including ours.
The 3949-page report has five key takeaways:
∙ CLIMATE CHANGE IS INDISPUTABLY HUMAN-CAUSED.
∙ 2010-2020 WAS THE HOTTEST DECADE IN 125,000 YEARS.
∙ CERTAIN CHANGES WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN ARE IRREVERSIBLE.
∙ GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ARE THE LEADING CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
∙ CLIMATE EVENTS ARE INCREASING IN SEVERITY AND NUMBER IN EVERY REGION OF THE PLANET
THE EVOLUTIONARY ANTIQUITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Unless you read up on the history of the environment, it is a great surprise to many that human evolutionary development points to climate change as a critical factor in major human adaptations like upright walking and tool making. The environmental instability provided the fuel for the so-called “variability selection,” advanced by Dr. Rick Potts of the Human Origins Program. The variability shown in environmental records shows our human ancestors’ increasing ability to cope with different kinds of changing habitats rather than adaptation to a single type of environmental change.
The early humans ( Pliocene epoch )1.9 M years ago dispersed in different environments outside Africa into Asia, Europe, and even the far North. It is testimony to the rise of different versions of genes to cope with environmental changes in the population. If our genetic heritage did not evolve the way it did, humans would have developed entirely to fit an African environment. The variability selection would be limited to a tropical savannah and forest. Fossil evidence in China shows that early humans cope with distinctly different climatic conditions in a wide variety of temperatures and precipitations.
The dinosaurs may have been extinct 65 M years ago, but they survived and thrived for 165 M years. And here we are, barely 200,000 years old, climate change and viruses are already threatening the crap out of us!
Our evolutionary legacy selected adaptations to grapple with a wide variety of climatic changes. Natural selection favoured anatomical and physiological characteristics beyond grassland and forest ecosystems. The genes that carried these adaptations survived and thrived. However, fossil records show many organisms did not survive the major climatic changes of those transformative years. Where are the dinosaurs now? They are not around anymore, extinct 65 M ago and reduced to the smaller reptiles of today.
As the climate got cooler, these creatures failed to sustain phenotypical adaptations so that they could disperse more widely. As a result, tens of thousands of plants and animals became extinct because their genes did not provide enough variation so that the original animal or plant could stay intact. To be more specific, practically none of the living things of the hominin generation are the same today. ( Fundamentalists and some mainstream religions believe otherwise. They postulate that we and all of God’s creation are the same as they have been since creation, some 5 to 10,000 years ago. ).
IF WE ARE SO GENETICALLY RESILIENT, WHY WORRY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE?
Evolution in higher forms of plants and animals does not result in any significant transformation “overnight.” The dinosaurs may have been extinct 65 M years ago, but they survived and thrived for 165 M years. ( And here we are, barely 200,000 years old, climate change and viruses are already threatening the crap out of us! ) Bacteria and viruses can have a multigeneration in a matter of hours. ( this is why a new COVID variant can arise within days of the last one ).
“Lucy” ( Australopithecus afarensis. The fossil was discovered in Ethiopia by Paleoanthropologist Donald Johansson. The skeleton nicknamed Lucy (from the Beatle song “Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds” ), a hominin, had long ape-like arms, longer grasping fingers, and flexible feet for walking. It enabled them to adjust to the changes in moisture and vegetation. These were the default characteristics of hominins between 2-3 million years ago.
Our immediate common ancestor, Homo erectus, started walking on two legs; with other anatomical changes, they became more adaptable to the different environments through the creative use of tools to survive diverse ecosystems. The modern man, the Homo sapiens, became the dominant variant about 3-200,000 years. Along us were the Neandertals and the Denisovans, who were genetically less able to survive the changing environments, eventually became extinct.
There are two essential things to remember from these accounts. First, hominids into humans’ combined evolutionary history took 4 M years to transition. Second, the early Homo sapiens were a nomadic hunting and gathering society.
If you superimpose these with what we are today, climate change can disrupt us in a way our ancestors never could. Modern civilization and 7.5 B humans have created geographical boundaries that essentially contain us to where we are. If the climate in Africa becomes permanently inhospitable for human habitation, there is very little, if any, other jurisdictions can offer to relocate all Africans. The refugee crisis we have today is but a piddling outline of what is yet to come.
The island of Kiribati in the Pacific is now in the throes of disappearing because of rising seas. How are they going to be resettled, and where? What is going to happen when the others face the same problem. Following natural selection ( evolution) logic, humans would eventually evolve to be aquatic ( perhaps colonize a future Atlantis ). Farfetched? No, it is not, but reaching a dominant stage of this transformation could take tens of millions of years. The nomadic humans had a smaller population’s advantages and the freedom to move wherever food and new environment were suitable.
The reality is, despite our genetic adaptability, civilization has curtailed our ability to wait out severe climate change. Science and technology have given us some breathing room, but we know there is only so much it can do. Moreover, political, cultural, and behavioural constraints further restrict our ability to adapt. And we are already seeing them today.
THE FALLOUT: THE COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
There is no “smoking gun” that points to climate change as the determinant of COVID-19; however, it is a factor in the evolution of viruses’ migration from entrenched habitats into new niches. For example, research shows that over 3,000 strains of coronavirus that already exist among bats are just waiting for an opportunity to jump to people. In addition, it shows that the warmer climate brings old viruses back from the dead, such as anthrax released from frozen reindeer in the Arctic.
As species seek new habitats, the balance is upset two ways, first, in the new territory and second in the remainder of the species left behind. These organisms become vulnerable to human influences and more likely to pass along more powerful pathogens. Loss of natural enemies or competition in the new habitat happens all the time except that we are caught in the transition. In the struggle for existence, more than a million animal and plant species face extinction at the current rate of climate change. Biodiversity will drop by 20%.
There is a thinner population of migratory birds. The survivors have supported higher infection rates, such as in mosquitoes that carry the West Nile virus. The 1999 West Nile outbreak in the U.S. came after climate-driven droughts dried-up streams and rivers leaving pools of stagnant water, a breeding ground for mosquitoes carrying the virus. It is the same scenario for many other mosquitoes carrying Dengue and Chikungunia. The dreaded Zika virus ( causes Microcephaly, little or absence of a brain, in an unborn when a pregnant woman is bitten by a mosquito ( Aedes aegypti) carrying the virus). is increasing its range from Brazil in this hemisphere into the higher latitudes.
The more resilient small animals thrive in shifting climate patterns, such as bats, rats, and rodents. They find food and sustenance in human habitats. Unfortunately, they also carry 60% of all diseases transmitted from animals to people.
The demand for farmland gets more intense as humanity surges into 10 billion in the next 35 years. It presents a dislocation of millions of plants and animals, higher water consumption to raise crops and livestock, and erosion, drought, and mudslides due to clearcutting. Besides the release of carbon, forest clearing results in a significant loss of carbon dioxide absorption.
DIRECT EFFECTS ON HUMANS
The changes that we have seen have been ongoing throughout history. Organisms do not respect boundaries. Political, sociological, or religious constraints do not govern them. Complex organisms eventually adapt or die out, and new life continues. Dominant ( only until better-suited species replace them) species prevail after long periods. The human’s evolutionary timetable is not in sync with the lower species. We get the fallout while organisms are sorting themselves out.
One of the most tangible impacts of climate change may be increased suicide rates. Historical records in the U.S. and Mexico show that suicide rates increased by 0.7 % in the U.S. and 2.1 % in Mexico when the average monthly temperature rose by 1 C. If global temperatures continue to grow at these rates, by 2050, there could be 9 to 40,000 additional suicides in the U.S. and Mexico alone.
First Nations and Inuit communities have a much higher suicide rate than the Canadian population. Already, the highest suicide rate globally, 10 X the Canadian rate, Nunavut will carry a significant brunt of global warming. It has brought major psychological distress to the populace, whose culture is closely tied with the traditional Arctic climate. Depression, alcohol, and drug abuse have contributed to the rise in suicide rates.
Other health impacts of climate change have resulted in higher cardiopulmonary illnesses, allergies, and, as mentioned earlier, a rise in vector-borne diseases, malnutrition, and diseases due to unsafe drinking water and air pollution. Even as mundane as kidney stones will see a surge in cases in a warmer and longer summer. When we sweat more, our urine becomes more concentrated, crystals of calcium or uric acid form. The most significant impact of heatwaves are the heat domes that hang for long stretches in a specific area. The one in B.C. this summer past killed 600. We are going to see more of these.
Odette leaves 67,000 homeless, 11 M in typhoon Yolanda. In 2020, 30.1 M were displaced in their own countries because of climate disasters. According to the World Bank, we have a global refugee problem. Two hundred million climate refugees are likely to migrate in the next three decades because of extreme weather or the slow degradation of their environments. More and more refugees on the U.S. southern border are fleeing south America because of agricultural challenges ( drought, soil erosion, erratic rainfall ).
IS LIFE AS WE KNOW IT DOOMED?
It is for some already, but the global warming index will determine how we will be affected. There is consensus that keeping temperature increases below 2 degrees could hold on to the status quo. The status quo means that climate disasters will continue to be spotty; the whole world shares a livable amount of climate catastrophe. However, even at this level of global warming, there will be countries that will have a more significant share of the climate fallout. The smaller countries such as Fiji and the Maldives do not have anything to spare; when the rising ocean surrounds you, and you are flat, what is there to limit?
Many African and Asian countries on the cusp of economic development either cannot afford the cost of renewable energy sources or stop industrial expansion. It is an awful dilemma because the developing countries suffer the worst effect of climate disasters.
By 2040, over half of the world’s population will not have enough freshwater year-round. Corona viruses and others will be commonplace. Misery, distress, and torment can trigger mass suicides. We will be at the mercy of the “monster” we have created.
All bets are off if global warming continues unabated to a 3-degree threshold. It is a scenario where everyone will be affected. All of what we have seen will become widespread. Ice sheets and glaciers melting will inundate coastal regions and major metropolises underwater. 95% of corals will be wiped out, depriving food sources of thousands of marine organisms, including fish, crabs, and shrimps. The warmer and more acidic oceans will quicken the pace of extinction of many arctic animals and the demise of major commercial species of bluefin tuna and Atlantic cod ( vulnerable since the 90s).
Heatwaves will become a major killer. Desertification and the absence of rainfall in many parts of Africa and South America will overwhelm agricultural output. Water shortages will trigger major conflicts, mass migration, and death in the millions. By 2040, over half of the world’s population will not have enough freshwater year-round. Dengue, Malaria, Zika, Corona Viruses, and many dormant viruses will become commonplace worldwide. Misery, distress, and torment can trigger mass suicides. We will be at the mercy of the “monster” we have created.
MITIGATIONS TO HOLD GLOBAL WARMING BELOW 2 DEGREES CELSIUS
More young people are highly involved in putting pressure on governments to pass legislation to reduce greenhouse gasses. They will face a future world different from the one we have now unless… But politics continue to play a significant role in moderating change.
The proliferation of conspiracy theories has also pressured governments to scale back their commitment to placate constituencies on the far right. Chief among them was that climate change was a Chinese hoax; that it’s a lobby by the Nuclear Coalition to promote nuclear power; that it is a socialist ideology promoted by liberal extremists, or that it is a “green” scam promoted by renewable energy companies.
The Kyoto Protocol and later the Paris Accord are government instituted agreements on climate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It was to be a legally binding international treaty in which each nation sets out goals to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
COP 26 in Scotland in Nov. was the most recent meeting of the 196 member countries ( China and Russia are not members ) of the Paris Agreement. ( the Biden Administration rejoined the Paris Accord after Trump’s withdrawal in 2017 ). They develop and report how much greenhouse gases are in their respective jurisdictions. They also detail their efforts at climate change adaptation and assist developing countries in developing their adaptation responses. All these, to keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees
CARBON TAX, CARBON CREDIT, CARBON OFFSETTING, CAP AND TRADE: WHAT ARE THEY?
One of the most effective government attempts to incentivize consumers and businesses to lessen emissions is to put a price on carbon. Developed countries, which happen to be the top greenhouse gas emitters, have provided avenues to reduce their carbon emissions. Essentially, it is a process that gives credit to those less dependent on fossil fuels by, say, deriving power from solar panels. Credit is denominated in tonnes of CO2.
When a highly polluting manufacturing facility is carbon taxed, it’s an incentive to go “green.” Through carbon offsetting, companies can purchase carbon credits to reduce carbon tax. It eases the transformation of these companies into greener activities. In addition, revenue collected from a carbon tax could create infrastructure to speed up a green revolution. Some of these applications could be solar panels in government buildings or electrical outlets to power electric vehicles along highways.
Cap and trade is a regulatory process to curb pollution. Regulators set a limit on the maximum emissions an industry can produce in a given year. An enterprise is said to be ahead if emissions are below the cap. It gets allowances for the remainder of the limit. It can then trade or use these
allowances to offset a polluting year or trade it to lessen carbon tax.
The atmospheric C0 2 is at a 2,000,000 year peak. We are on a trajectory to hit over 2 degrees C in the coming years.
“1.5 C is on life support now; it’s in ICU,” says an observer at COP 26.
Quid nunc? What now?
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