With Philippine and American soldiers conducting joint military exercises right in the middle of the known lair of renegade Muslim commander Ameril Umbra Kato in Central Mindanao, both the Philippines and the United States are sending signals to the Muslim rebels that they are prepared to do anything to forge peace in that troubled region.
Umbra Kato is seen by both the Philippines and the US as an obstacle to a possible peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, led by Al Haj Murad Ibrahim, and restricting his movements, even by the mere presence of the participating Filipino and American soldiers in his areas of operation, could neutralize Umbra Kato as a bargaining chip for the MILF, who has been insisting on the establishment of a Bangsamoro substate but has agreed not to pursue full independence.
The Philippine government wants the MILF to expel Umbra Kato from the MILF after the latter said his group would never give up its goal of full independence for the Bangsamoro. But the MILF has hesitated to expel Umbra Kato in an apparent effort to use the renegade commander as a bargaining chip, like telling the government “Look what could happen if you do not agree to a Bangsamoro substate.”
Umbra Kato and two other MILF commanders launched violent attacks in Central Mindanao in August 2008 following the Supreme Court ruling that stopped the signing of a Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) that the Philippine government and the MILF were about to sign in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The MOA-AD would have granted the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) its own internal security force, a system of banking and finance, civil service, education and legislative institutions, full authority to develop and dispose of minerals and natural resources. The BJE would also reportedly be able to send trade missions abroad and enter into international agreements under the MOA-AD.
It was clearly a surrender of sovereignty by the Philippine government to the MILF, making it necessary and urgent for the high tribunal to stop it. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, under the prodding of the United States, was willing to give up control over a region that, according to a US study, sit on rich mineral resources with an estimated worth of between $850 billion and $1 trillion, after virtually giving away the country’s claim to China over some islands in the Spratlys that are estimated to sit on oil worth at least $840 million.
The US knew very well the rich mineral and oil resources, the fertile lands and the strategic location of Mindanao, and has reportedly reached agreement with the Ibrahim-led MILF to allow the Americans a foothold on the region if the MOA-AD were approved.
A year after the MOA-AD was stopped by the Supreme Court, the MILF openly asked the US to mediate in the peace talks. A delegation of US Embassy officials, led by then US Deputy Ambassador Leslie Bassett, met with Ibrahim in August 2009 in Sultan Kudarat, where Bassett reportedly assured Ibrahim of American support in the peace talks.
While it was announced that the Japanese government brokered the “surprise” meeting between President Aquino and Ibrahim in Tokyo on August 4 (note that all these developments in Mindanao happened in August, the holiest month in the Muslim calendar), there is no doubt that the US was the one that initiated it.
It appeared after that meeting that Aquino was willing to accept the Bangsamoro substate proposal of the MILF, which was no different from the treasonous MOA-AD of the Arroyo administration. But when the talks reopened in Kuala Lumpur a few days later, the Philippine government made a counter-proposal that did not include a substate, but an expanded autonomy, meaning a “more autonomous” autonomy than the one that was granted by the 1976 Tripoli Agreement with the Moro National Liberation Front under Chairman Nur Misari.
The decision of Aquino to meet with Ibrahim was obviously a strategic mistake on the part of the Philippine government. By agreeing to a meeting with Ibrahim, who is not a head of state, Aquino virtually gave the MILF equal state status, thus emboldening the Moro leader to lay down a substate proposal.
Aquino must have realized he will be crucified as Arroyo virtually was in 2008 not only by the non-Muslims in Mindanao, but by the entire Filipino people as well for surrendering Philippine sovereignty and for presiding in the dismemberment of the Republic. Thus, the expanded autonomy offer.
Just as he violently reacted to the rejection by the Supreme Court of the MOA-AD in 2008 when his troops attacked villages, burned homes and killed civilians, Umbra Kato lambasted his fellow rebels in the MILF for betraying the cause of Moro independence and vowed to fight for Bangsamoro freedom until death. He officially bolted from the MILF and formed his own Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement. With the end of the Eid al-Fitr holy month, it’s not farfetched that Umbra Kato would launch another offensive. But the joint US-Philippine military contingent will be there to neutralize him.
Now, the Mindanao situation has gotten more complicated with three different groups seeking a Bangsamoro entity in various forms. The MILF wants a substate, the MNLF a strengthened autonomy, and the Umbra Kato-led BIFM, secession.
Apparently, the US prefers the MILF substate proposal, having supported the identical MOA-AD in 2008 because it obviously already has an “understanding” with the MILF and secondly, because an autonomy does not allow the access to a military base because it is not allowed by the 1987 Constitution, and thirdly, because Umbra Kato’s BIFM remains a terrorist group and difficult to deal with.
And so when the time to decide where to hold the joint exercises, it was not difficult to pick the areas where Umbra Kato operates. The Americans obviously hope to minimize Umbra Kato’s role in the negotiations and send a signal to Ibrahim and the MILF that the US is still behind them.
Umbra Kato is expected to launch aggressive attacks as he did in 2008 as a show of force, but with the Americans and Filipino soldiers setting up checkpoints throughout the area, his ragtag army of about 300 dedicated rebels will be neutralized.
After several attempts to resolve the Mindanao dispute, the nagging problem remains. Aquino has vowed to bring lasting peace to Mindanao before his term ends, but with both the MNLF and the MILF holding separate peace talks with the government, and the BIFM threatening to reignite an armed conflict, the region may continue to be Aquino’s biggest headache and the biggest stumbling block to the country’s full economic development.
How do you appease the Bangsamoro people without angering the rest of the Filipino people? How do you allow a Bangsamoro land without surrendering sovereignty?
Remember the famous song in the “Sound of Music’? How do you solve a problem like Mindanao? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down? How do you keep a wave upon the sand? How do you catch a moonbeam in your hand?