There’s so much pain because of Putin
“The beginning of every war is like opening the door into a dark room. One never knows what is hidden in the darkness.” – Adolf Hitler.
“And I can see no reason why anyone should suppose that in the future the same motifs already heard will not be sounding still…put to use by reasonable men to reasonable ends, or by madmen to nonsense and disaster.” – Joseph Campbell.
On 24 February 2022, another monstrous dictator opened the “door into a dark room.” He ordered his Russian forces to commence the invasion of Ukraine in which he designated the mission as a “special military operation.” That justification might sound hollow to the rest of the world, but in Russia that was good enough. The Russian people will be cowered to believe anyway. Any form of protests will be silenced immediately and protesters, young and old, will be arrested and taken off the streets. No ifs or buts; either you are for Vladimir Putin or you go straight to the gulags.
Why did Putin do it?
Well, the Russian experts who studied the life of Putin came up with the simple answer: Putin is ideologically motivated to restore the glory of the Soviet Union which formally ended on 26 December 1991. Putin felt the collapse of the Soviet Union as a great humiliation, and as a young KGB agent at that time, he never accepted nor forgot (coincidentally, a young Hitler also considered the capitulation of Germany in the First World War as a great humiliation as well).
That was too long to carry a beef. Besides, the international world order has already moved towards peace and economic integration. Yet Putin, ever-the-bully and evil dictator, having won his small wars in Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014) and Syria (2015), thinks the West cannot stop him. Even with their sanctions Russia still becomes militarily and economically stronger. So their sanctions now, Putin deduces, will be ineffective as well. In his logic, the invasion of Ukraine will be his last mark to his glowing legacy that will catapult him to an equal or higher footing with the greatest rulers of Russia.
But the Ukrainians are fighting courageously and the West have united to impose heavier sanctions, resulting in the plummeting of the Russian ruble to a penny, in banning seven major Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system, in the temporary suspension of the Moscow stock market, in freezing or seizing the assets of the oligarchs close to him, and in long line-up of Russian citizens trying to get their savings out of their local banks. The anti-war protest inside Russia may turn into a strong movement which the jailed Alexei Navalny (Putin’s nemesis) could exploit while the rest of the world will continue to treat Russia as a pariah.
On 26 February 2002, Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an MSNBC Opinion Columnist, wrote an article entitled “Putin may have accidentally orchestrated his own demise.” At the beginning of her article, she referred to Benito Mussolini’s (an Italian fascist dictator) invasion of Ethiopia in 1935 which bankrupted the country and yet made him popular to his people as the restorer of the Italian empire. So in 1940, having his ego inflated, Mussolini allied himself with Adolf Hitler and plunged his country into a war contrary to his generals’ advice.
Putin seems to have miscalculated the willingness of Ukrainians to fight and the West’s strong and united imposition of heavy sanctions. And as a result, Putin has overreached the extent of his power. “As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds,” Ruth Ben-Ghiat concludes, “Putin will show his hand ever more as an individual who is motivated by personal glory and megalomania. If history of strongmen is any indication, it may be downhill for the Russian leader from here.”
Why this march of folly?
That question reminded me of a book I read long time ago, The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam (1984) by Barbara W. Tuchman. So I ran down to my basement where I have a small collection of books purchased during my working years. I found it right away and started reading it again.
At the opening paragraph of her book, Tuchman immediately presented her argument when she wrote: “A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by government of policies contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity. In this sphere, wisdom, which may be defined as the exercise of judgment acting on experience, common sense and available information, is less operative and more frustrated that it should be. Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests? Why does intelligent mental process seem so often not to function?”
According to Tuchman, there are four kinds of misgovernment: (1) tyranny or oppression; (2) excessive ambition; (3) incompetence or decadence and; (4) folly or perversity. In case of Putin’s invasion, numbers 2 and 4 could be aptly applied. All these will lead to self-deception of what the true reality is. One source of self-deception, according to Tuchman, is wooden-headedness. “It consists in assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions,” Tuchman wrote, “while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts.”
Tuchman also mentioned the prime characteristics of folly: (1) rejection of reason; (2) lust for power; (3) excessive power; (4) mental standstill or stagnation and; (5) persistence in error. All these could have been in play in Putin’s personality that allowed him to pursue a dangerous path no matter what the consequences are. He dared to challenge the U.S. and the West and the prize is Ukraine.
As I continuously watch the daily news from CNN, MSNBC, CBC, and PBS, I see pain everywhere: from the subdued faces of Ukrainians fleeing their war-torn country to the safe confines of neighbouring countries like Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova; from those who stayed behind showing their strength and resilience in the face of constant bombardments and the total destruction of infrastructures which make their lives interrupted and difficult; from the brave fighters defending their homeland against the mighty Russian army; from the volunteers who do their best efforts to take care of the sick, of the dead and of other menial duties just to make their destroyed surroundings livable.
I lack the words to describe the monstrosities and atrocities caused by Putin’s war in Ukraine, still I see the deathly pictures of a once-beautiful country now smoldering in ashes as I go to sleep every night. I may not fully experience the great sufferings of the Ukrainians, but I and the countless people around the world are tremendously heartbroken. We demand a stop to this madness!
What is the end game?
As much as I dislike Lindsey Graham, the Trump-loving GOP Senator from South Carolina, his call for the assassination of Putin resonates well to my vengeful heart and righteous indignation. But the reality is killing Putin will be difficult. He is surrounded by fellow sycophants who will willingly kill and die for him. The end game will be long that will last beyond Putin’s death.
But for the time being, I present you with two plausible scenarios. First, the Zelensky government will collapse by assassination, surrender or exile. The Russian army will successfully occupy the most vital cities of Ukraine. Putin will install a puppet government but will maintain a strong presence to stave off any insurgency or rebellion. He will strengthen his ties with China, India and Pakistan. He will take Russia out of the Western alliances. He will continue to support countries opposed to U.S. and the West such as Syria, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea. He will take advantage of any proxy wars against democratic-leaning countries. He will keep on hammering the world with cyberattacks, misinformation and disinformation.
The second scenario is a stalemate. Russia is gaining grounds from the South and North of Ukraine right now, but Ukraine will be able to stop the onslaught by the continued military support from Western countries. China or France will step in to broker the negotiations for peace which Putin may accept as long as the agreement will contain a face-saving victory for him, such as keeping the pro-Russian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (or the Donbas region). The Western alliances will finance for the reparations of Ukraine and will make Ukraine a member of NATO and the European Union.
Of course, these two scenarios are nothing but conjectures on my part. It is always difficult to predict the outcome of a prolonged war. But I wish dearly that Ukraine will win and recover from this hell on earth.
When I look at Putin, he seems to exude acceptability of behaviour and is always in control of his wits. That’s the problem with evil. It can mask itself in the cloth of ordinariness and then leaves a trail of wickedness that sucks the air out of our conscience. Those leaders, who met Putin, profiled him as an evil and soulless man and warned us of the danger he posed to civilization, could pat themselves at the back for their accurate description of him. But the warning does not bring consolation. All we have now is grief, suffering and pain!