With the deadline for the filing of candidacy for the May 2016 elections still about five months away, the presidential race is beginning to take shape. Based on recent actions and statements of the major players, it would seem the presidential race would be a five- or six-way contest at the very least just as it had been since the first post-Marcos presidential elections in 1992.
This assures us that the next president will be a minority president, as all the four elected under the 1987 Constitution. Political analysts predict that under such scenario, a 25 to 30-percent share of the total votes could win the presidency.
The situation in 2016 could be the same as the one in 1992 when former Defense Secretary Fidel V. Ramos became the first president elected under the 1987 Constitution in 1992 with a mere 23.58% of the vote in formidable cast of at least seven major contenders. Ramos won over Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago (19.72%), businessman Danding Cojuangco (18.17%), former Speaker Ramon Mitra (14.64%), former First Lady Imelda Romualdez Marcos (10.32%), former Senate President Jovito Salonga (10.16%) and former Vice President Doy Laurel (3.4%).
President Benigno S. Aquino III had 42.08% of the votes in 2010 against three political heavyweights — former president Joseph Estrada (26.25%), former Senate President Manny Villar (15.42%), and former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro’s 11.33%.
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo got 39.99% in 2004 against two major contenders in a controversial election — actor Fernando Poe Jr. (36.51%) and former Sen. Ping Lacson (10.88%).
Estrada himself got 39.86% in 1998 against three major candidates — former Speaker Joe de Venecia (15.8%), former Sen. Raul Roco (13.38%) and former Cebu Gov. Lito Osmena (12.44%).
Based on recent developments, at least five major candidates are expected to plunge into the presidential race in 2016 — Vice President Jejomar Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), Interior Secretary Mar Roxas (Liberal Party), Sen. Grace Poe (Independent, so far), Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte (PDP-Laban) and Sen. Bongbong Marcos (Nacionalista Party).
Former Sen. Ping Lacson may try a second presidential run under a multiple-candidate scenario, and Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago may still be tempted to run as an independent.
The continuous ratings drop and relentless demolition job on Binay, the possible team-up of Poe and Sen. Chiz Escudero outside of the Liberal Party, and the emergence of Duterte as a dark horse candidate have made running for the presidency in 2016 more tenable for many presidential wannabe’s.
If Roxas and Poe go their separate ways, that would effectively split both the administration and the opposition, which would improve the chances of dark horse candidates like Duterte and Bongbong Marcos, and perhaps even Lacson and Santiago. Binay could also benefit from a run by both Roxas and Poe as all he has to do is keep his loyal base intact to get the magic number of 25 to 30 percent of the votes.
Duterte could also benefit from many candidates running from Luzon and from the split of Roxas’ votes as these would further solidify his hold on the Visayas-Mindanao votes, although a candidacy by Lacson could loosen his hold on the voters looking for an alternative to the traditional politicians and for a tough president.
In the end, which does not bode well for the Filipino people, the 2016 race would become a game of numbers and a contest of personalities rather than a battle on issues. If the 5 to 6-bets scenario became a reality come the campaign season, the candidates would need experienced political strategists who tinker with numbers more than agenda setters who formulate stand on issues.
We probably wouldn’t be hearing much on the candidates’ stand on critical issues like the standoff with China on the South China Sea territorial dispute, the establishment of the Bangsamoro entity, the accommodation of US troops in the country’s bases, the pork barrel, the Sabah claim, the move to change the political set-up to a federal or parliamentary system or both, and many more.
But that has always been the case with Philippine politics since the demise of the two-party system, where elections are often decided on how the current administration performed and what the challenging party can promise to the people. Now, parties no longer seem to have a definite stand on issues except perhaps for the PDP-Laban that has been consistently pushing for a federal system of government.
In the current system, popularity remains the most important criteria in selecting the president. It will continue to be so, unless the voters suddenly decide it’s time we change that.
(valabelgas@aol.com)