With just nine months to go before the May 2010 Philippine presidential elections, the positioning among presidential candidates and political parties has already reached pitch fever proportions. And unlike at the onset of the year when there were more than a dozen presidential hopefuls, we can now cut the number down to just seven or eight, and perhaps to just five or six before the end of the year.
At least six political parties appear bent on putting up complete slates, five of them officially recognized by the Commission on Elections, namely the Lakas-Kampi-CMD; the PMP-PDP-UNO; the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC); the Nacionalista Party (NP) and the Liberal Party (LP). The sixth party, still to be recognized by the Comelec, is the Bagong Pilipinas Movement of evangelist Bro. Eddie Villanueva.
The Lakas-Kampi-CMD is the result of the merger between the Lakas ng Bayan-Christian Muslim Democrats, with former President Fidel V. Ramos as chairman emeritus; and the Kampi, founded and headed by Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The Comelec has yet to act on the petition of the merged political party to transfer recognition from Ramos’ Lakas to Arroyo’s merged Lakas-Kampi-CMD merger.
Ramos has shown displeasure over the merger and has, in fact, turned down an invitation by Arroyo for him to be its chairman emeritus. Last week, Ramos unleashed a torrent of negative remarks against Arroyo, raising speculations that the former President may be distancing himself from Arroyo.
Ramos’ recent actions exposed the cracks in the newly formed merger, which has yet to find a prospective standard bearer who could stand up to the popular candidates of the opposition parties. Recently, Rep. Luis Villafuerte of Camarines Sur, who was the president of the Kampi before the merger, basically bolted from the party by publicly endorsing fellow Bicolano, Sen. Francis Escudero of the Nationalist People’s Coalition.
Without the explicit support of Lakas stalwarts Ramos and former Speaker Jose de Venecia, and Kampi’s Villafuerte, the Lakas-Kampi-CMD merger is almost certain to lose the presidential race even if the opposition fails to put up a common candidate.
Until now, the administration coalition has no front-running candidate. It is hoping the popular and party-less Vice President Noli de Castro would finally make up his mind and join the new party but De Castro’s dilly-dallying could only mean one thing – he is not interested.
De Castro, who won the vice presidency as an independent, topped political surveys for several months, until recently when he slipped to third and fourth, mostly because of his indecisiveness and his perceived inclination to run under the party of Arroyo, whose endorsement is tantamount to a “kiss of death.”
De Castro, who cannot wage a sustained national campaign without party backing, is obviously tempted to join Lakas-Kampi-CMD but is afraid of the stigma that an Arroyo endorsement could bring. Likewise, De Castro is not ready to burn bridges with long-time ally and friend, Sen. Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party. Villar and De Castro are part of the four-man Wednesday group along with Sen. Francis Pangilinan and former Sen. Ralph Recto.
In my estimation, De Castro, who seems reluctant to run for president anyway, will eventually join Villar as his running mate. This will be a formidable team considering that both have consistently landed on the top three of various surveys in the past year or so. Pangilinan, who was hoping to be Villar’s running mate, would slide down to the Nacionalista’s senatorial line-up, along with Recto.
Lakas-Kampi-CMD may end up with Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, a former NPC stalwart and nephew of businessman and known kingmaker Danding Cojuangco. Teodoro is young and brilliant, but needs more political exposure as shown by his poor showing in surveys.
On the other hand, Lakas-Kampi-CMD can still woo back Sen. Richard J. Gordon, who has formed his own party, Bagumbayan. Gordon may have criticized the Arroyo administration in many issues, but he is the most popular, politically savvy and best qualified among possible administration candidates. Gordon also has established a nationwide network through the Philippine National Red Cross, where he is chairman.
The only other Lakas-Kampi-CMD aspirants are Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando, who is probably the least popular among the aspirants; and Quezon City Mayor Sonny Belmonte, who is very much qualified but relatively unknown outside of Metro Manila.
Lakas-Kampi-CMD, at this time, still has no clear candidate for either president or vice president, nor a clear senatorial line-up. But Arroyo and his aides don’t seem bothered at all. Wonder why?
Despite the zooming popularity and growing clamor for Sen. Noynoy Aquino to run, I think he will eventually agree to be Sen. Mar Roxas’ running mate in the Liberal Party. Roxas has been gradually climbing up the surveys, has been campaigning nationwide for almost two years now, and is peaking at the right moment. His wedding with popular broadcaster Korina Sanchez on Oct. 23 is timed to boost his ratings towards the start of the campaign.
With the iconic Aquino brand beside his familiar Roxas name, the Mar-Noynoy tandem of the Liberals would give the Villar-De Castro team of the Nacionalistas a run for their money.
The Nationalist People’s Coalition’s potential presidential team of Escudero and Sen. Loren Legarda would also be a team to beat considering that Escudero and Legarda finished second and first, respectively, in the 2007 senatorial elections. In addition to the name recall, they will be backed by unlimited funding from Cojuangco.
But the chances of all these four parties – the Lakas-Kampi-CMD, the Nacionalista Party, the Liberal Party and the Nationalist People’s Coalition — will hinge on whether former President Joseph Estrada would run or would be allowed to run.
Estrada is obviously determined to make a second run at the presidency, and only an unfavorable Supreme Court decision could stop him from achieving his goal. Despite his being deposed by People Power, which was mostly initiated by the middle classes, and his conviction of plunder, Estrada has proven that he remains popular with the masses, which comprise more than a majority of the votes, during his sorties through almost 500 towns and cities in virtually every province in the country.
In these provincial sorties, ostensibly made to thank his mass followers for their continued support, Estrada was mobbed by the people. In addition, Estrada has rapidly climbed up the surveys, landing No. 1 in the June survey of the Social Weather Station, besting Villar.
In a multi-candidate scenario of about six or seven candidates, where a 25% share of the votes could win the presidency, only Estrada has the capability to garner that percentage. In the 1998 presidential election, where 10 candidates run, Estrada garnered 39.86% of the votes, winning by a landslide over De Venecia, who only got 13.83%.
In contrast, Ramos won by only less than 4%, garnering 23.58% over Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago’s 19.72%.
Three religious leaders have also signified intention to seek the presidency, making the May 2010 presidential elections even more interesting.
Bro. Eddie Villanueva of Bagong Pilipinas is definitely running again after a failed bid in 2004, where he landed sixth and last with almost 2 million votes or 6.16%. Fr. Ed Panlilio, who pulled a political upset in winning the Pampanga governorship in 2007, looks determined to run, while Bro. Mike Velarde of El Shaddai admitted having made a deal with Estrada to support each other in case one would run and the other would not.
I think only Villanueva would end up running for president among the three, because Velarde would not run without Estrada’s support, and Panlilio would eventually be convinced not to run by the Church.
In any case, some things can still change in the months leading to the filing of candidacy in November, especially in the vice presidential slots. Only the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party remains unclear on its standard bearers. But the five other parties will, to my mind, have the following: Nacionalista Party: Villar-De Castro; Liberal Party: Roxas-Aquino; Nationalist People’s Coalition: Escudero-Legarda; PMP-PDP-UNO: Estrada and possibly Makati Mayor Jojo Binay or Legarda as vice president; and Bagong Pilipinas: Villanueva and a candidate from another reformist group as vice president.
Estrada, who said he would try to unify the opposition, has invited Roxas to be his running mate, but I don’t think the latter would slide down. Estrada would probably invite Escudero or Legarda, too. Escudero is not likely to agree, but Legarda may seriously consider it.
There will be plenty of wheeling-and-dealings in the next nine months, and during this time, the people’s attention will be fixated in politics. Arroyo can’t be happier.